It seems like no matter how we proceed, we can’t escape Nolan questions. Either it’s Nolan Ryan. Or, this winter, Nolan Arenado. Speaking of:
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ME: Consider it done. Also, consider his responses to me whenever I might have a trade suggestion to pass along via text: “Restaurant recommendations only, please.” Which lets you know he thinks highly of my food tastes and not so much of my GM’ing skills. I would say Gallo is about the closest thing to untouchable that this team has. I don’t see him in an Arenado trade.
The Arenado trade possibility seemed dead earlier this week. Then Colorado GM Jeff Briditch announced that there was nothing to see here, that Arenado would start the season in Colorado and (claps hands together) that was that. It took Arenado only a couple of hours to fire back that, well, quite frankly he felt “disrespected” by the Rockies. And now it has all the makings of a full-blown melodrama that means either going to camp with a very unhappy franchise player or finding a deal that does ultimately work for you. What’s changed is that a week ago, Briditch was probably only moved to make a deal on his terms; now he may be forced to make a deal on the best terms available, which would still be significant.
As I’ve reported previously, a deal for Arenado is extremely tricky based on the size of his contract, his opt-out after 2021 and his no-trade clause. He has a lot of leverage in whether a deal gets done or not. To me, this is starting to look like the Alex Rodriguez saga of the winter following the 2003 season. If you recall, that standoff wasn’t settled until Feb. 16, 2004, when the Rangers ultimately struck a deal with the Yankees.
If anything, I think the Rockies have lost a bit of leverage here, which means other teams that might not have been willing to play might join the fray. Right now, the only teams that have really been connected with Colorado for Arenado are the Rangers, Cubs, Cardinals, Braves and Dodgers.
I’d say this: While I’m confident the Rangers would offer to take on his entire contract, I’m not sure they have the proper inventory of talent to get the deal done. They don’t have a top 50 prospect. They don’t have an established young position player to offer; Willie Calhoun might be the best they have and while he’s an intriguing hitter, he has less than one year in the majors and remains an adequate — at best — fielder.
The Rangers would probably have to rely on a deal in which they take on the money and try to bowl Colorado over with quantity of players. They could fashion a package of something like Calhoun, one of their top two prospects (either Josh Jung or Sam Huff), a young-on-the-cusp pitcher (Kolby Allard, Brocke Burke or Joe Palumbo) and maybe a highly-regarded lower level prospect (Colorado native Cole Winn or Ricky Vanasco perhaps). And I’m still not sure that’s enough.
UPDATE: (Thursday, 8 a.m.): After writing all this, Arenado late Wednesday seemed to back off his statements some, by saying his comments were “out of character” for him and that he wouldn’t be speaking on the topic any longer. He said was looking forward to “getting ready for the coming season.” It basically read like he’s said what he’s going to say; the Rockies no how he feels and, the next move is in their court.
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ME: You have to remember that there are two sides involved in negotiations. The Rangers can make an offer, but they can’t sign the player until said player decides he wants to sign. To this point, there has been no indication Castellanos is moving towards a conclusion other than the Rangers having engaged in talks.
At this point, I believe Scott Boras is still trying to parlay Castellanos’ breakout year and his age (27) into a bigger deal than I suspect is out there. The projection I saw this fall on a Castellanos deal was four years, $56 million, but that was before the market went bonkers. So, he may be trying to still shoot past that projection either in years or dollars and, quite frankly, I don’t think the market is as robust for him. Maybe that’s because he’s not really a third baseman and hasn’t played the outfield a ton and so clubs don’t see a great fit.
I would think with Marcell Ozuna signing with Atlanta (FYI: the Rangers never got into anything involving serious conversations with him), the market dwindles even further. Maybe San Francisco. Maybe Cincinnati. Maybe at this point, Boras is also considering a one-year deal worth a higher AAV so that Castellanos can bet on himself and potentially turn it into an even bigger payday.
To answer the gist of your question: The Rangers haven’t signed Castellanos, not because they are waiting to make a trade. A trade, particularly one for Arenado, simply hasn’t really materialized. And until the latest round of barbs between Colorado GM Jeff Briditch and Arenado, I think the Rangers were willing to move on. Maybe circumstances put them in the right place at the right time. Maybe.
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ME: I have tried Terry Black’s BBQ in Deep Ellum twice. The first trip was outstanding and had me ready to put them on the Mount Rushmore of Dallas BBQ alongside Cattleack, Pecan Lodge and Lockhart. The second trip, the meats were, well, not terribly hot. The brisket was still quite good and the bark on the ribs was awesome, but I thought the temperature was a little too close to room temperature. Maybe that’s because we got there towards the end of the brisket the slicer was working on and it had been out of the smoker a bit (at Terry Black’s, the slicer/cashier has a brisket besides him at all times, it seems; most of the other foods come from the smoker).
I loved their green beans and their coleslaw. And I liked that both times I went, it was busy, but the place is so big that there was always plenty of space to sit and because of the number of slicer/cashiers working at one time, there never seemed to be much of a line. I will go back again, but I’m waiting for another trip before I give Mount Rushmore status.
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ME: Gallo did the hard part last year, bumping his batting average nearly 50 points to .253. Is another 20-point increase possible? Sure. If he continues to trim his strikeout percentage slightly, a continued upward trajectory is possible. Also, with a more balanced lineup and with teams unable to use lefties as one-batter guys, he may get more favorable matchups later in games (though if he’s doing Joey things, opposing managers are likely to plan out their inning to have a lefty go the full inning, if they have one). But, for me, the big thing is always going to be the OPS, because what he’s laying off and what he’s doing damage on are so important.
Albeit, only 70 games, he reached the OBP goal and OPS goal I think were realistic for him. His OBP was .389; I think anything above .350 for him his acceptable for him, .375 desirable. His OPS was .986. For him, .900 year in and year out should be average; above .950 puts him in the elite percentile in MLB. Last year, there were nine players among 135 qualifiers to post .950 or above OPS.
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ME: I fully believe the Rangers were willing to commit $300 million or more for Anthony Rendon and Zack Wheeler this winter. I think they very accurately believed that the New York Yankees were not going to be denied in their pursuit of Gerrit Cole, so that was unrealistic. It become evident pretty quickly that Wheeler had a desired destination: Philadelphia. He turned down more money from the Chicago White Sox than he ultimately took from Philadelphia, so even if the Rangers had gone to $115-120 million, I don’t think they were landing him.
On Rendon, they made a mistake. They should not have started off with a six-year offer, not when Rendon already had a seven-year guarantee, that was publicly reported, from Washington. Think the Rangers thought they were engaging in a negotiation that would eventually take them to seven years. That didn’t sit well either with Rendon or his agent, Scott Boras, or both. Because they never got a chance to make a counter offer.
That said, the Rangers have spent about $70 million this winter (including the salary commitment taken on in the Corey Kluber deal). They rank in the top 25 percent of spenders in MLB this winter. And if they do sign Nick Castellanos, they are likely to surpass $125 million in commitments. If, somehow, they get Nolan Arenado, you are talking about close to $300 million.
Regardless of what happens the rest of the way, payroll will be up significantly from the last couple of years. And while it’s easy to correlate a big single investment in a player with how a team is viewed as a contender, the Rangers have improved themselves all around the diamond. Small incremental improvements at multiple positions can lead to one major improvement in won-loss record. I’m also not sure this winter was the one on which to make the mega investment. Get better at multiple positions this year, get some guys closer to the majors and then in upcoming years, you explore the likes of Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor or Javy Baez to put you over the top.
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ME: I was 26 before my childhood favorite team, the Braves went to a World Series and 30 before they actually won one. And now it’s been 25 years since that. Judas Priest, I’m old. It took the Rangers 38 years to get to their first World Series. All I can say, is I feel pretty good based on where this team is, the revenues it is generating and the strength of the economic market it is in that you won’t be like one of those 1972 babies who had to wait until 2010 to see the team win its first ever postseason series. And if it does go more than 38 years, I’m fairly confident that somebody else will be manning Evan Help us to take your complaint at that time.
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ME: Crunch! I’ve found it really easy to make veggies crisp and crunchy without being too charred in my new air fryer (a Christmas gift from my wife). I’ve made Parmagianno crusted asparagus and brussels sprouts and was happier with both than in my conventional oven. Also, just tonight, as I was writing this, I tried some sweet potato chips for the first time. Think the mandoline was set to slice too thickly so some of the “chips” didn’t crisp all that much. But I’ve been real happy with the results on crispy veggies in the thing.
If I had any advice, it would be a little bit of oil goes a really long way in this thing and to watch your veggies pretty closely the first couple of times so you get a get handle on when to turn ’em so you don’t burn ’em!
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ME: The Rangers were there early in the 2019 season. The surface looked fantastic, but it played a little bit spongy. That was not terribly unexpected, though it wasn’t very fondly received by the Diamondbacks players. The Diamondbacks field sat on a crushed rock subsurface and that required some settling, which did take place over the course of the year. But early on, there were some spots where there were, for lack of a better term, little air pockets that made for a spongier surface.
There will be some differences between Chase Field and Globe Life Field. Most notably, there is this: The Rangers are installing a solid subsurface, which won’t need to settle much, if it all. So, the field should play a little firmer at the start. Also, the Rangers are getting Shaw Sports Turf’s next generation performance pad between their playing surface and the subsurface. The belief is that it will allow for firmer footing, but also keep bounces pretty true (the bounces in Arizona were much truer than on any artificial surface I’ve seen).
So long way of saying that looking at Arizona’s field and pronouncing judgement on Globe Life Field aren’t exactly apples to apples. Close, but not entirely. And Arizona’s field was a vast improvement over artificial surfaces I’d previously seen. Oh, and also, Miami is going to Shaw’s product also for the 2020 season.
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ME: Unless the Rangers trade for Nolan Arenado, I don’t think there is anybody on the current roster who is on a Hall of Fame track. While Joey Gallo has out-of-this-world ability, he’s only played the equivalent of 2.5 full seasons. It would be too early to make any kind of prediction on him even if he’d had Mike Trout numbers, but the first two seasons were marked by low batting averages and sub-.900 OPS’.
Of course, the Rangers will have a Hall of Famer soon enough. Adrian Beltre is entering his second year of retirement and a player must be retired five years before becoming eligible. So, the countdown is on for that.
