European Economy Slows, Raising Expectations of E.C.B. Action – The New York Times

Economic growth in countries that use the euro slowed considerably in the second quarter, adding to pressure on the European Central Bank to intercede to prevent a possible recession.

The economies in the eurozone countries grew by 0.2 percent over the preceding quarter, half the 0.4 percent growth rate posted in the first three months of the year, according to Eurostat, the European statistical agency. On an annual basis, the economy rose 1.1 percent from the same quarter a year ago.

“This highlights that the slowdown in Europe is substantial,” said Ángel Talavera, an economist at Oxford Economics, a market research firm, who described the numbers as “weak” though “expected.”

On another worrisome front, inflation remained tepid in July at 1.1 percent, down from 1.3 percent in June, Eurostat reported. That number is well below the central bank’s target of close to 2 percent.

Later Wednesday, Federal Reserve policymakers in Washington, concerned over signs that the United States economy’s long boom may be coming to an end, announced a quarter-point cut in the central bank’s benchmark interest rate.

Mr. Talavera and other analysts said the trade wars waged by the Trump administration were weighing on the European economy, and especially on countries like Germany and Italy that are heavily dependent on exports. Last week, a survey of business sentiment in Germany showed the biggest decline since early 2009.

The increasing likelihood that Britain will leave the European Union in a disorderly way is also probably a source of uncertainty for businesses on the Continent, said Holger Schmieding, an economist at Berenberg, a German bank.

Mr. Schmieding said the trade curbs, a related slowing of China’s economy and other external woes were feeding into the European economies, reducing business investment and hiring. He said the German economy, Europe’s largest, was particularly vulnerable to such shocks. The country’s high-profile automobile industry and other large, cyclical businesses, like makers of machine tools and chemicals, were being hurt.

The European Central Bank has grown increasingly concerned about the chances of a recession, and said last week that it was reviewing ways to revive the slowing economy, perhaps as early as September.

The slowing economic growth and sagging inflation are expected to bolster policymakers at the central bank who are pushing for a new asset buying program when they meet in September.

“The E.C.B. is going to come out with guns blazing,” Mr. Talavera said.

Economists worry that with the benchmark interest rate at zero, the European Central Bank has few options left. But Mario Draghi, its president, and Christine Lagarde, who will succeed him in October, are expected to consider adding to the bank’s huge purchases of bonds. Buying these securities is, in effect, printing money, a form of stimulus.

There was some positive news on the employment front. In June, the unemployment rate in the 19 countries that use the euro fell to 7.5 percent, down from 7.6 percent in May and the lowest level recorded since July 2008.