Coming up on Sunday, a day after the Raiders cut their roster to 53 players, is the one-year anniversary of the trade that sent Khalil Mack to the Chicago Bears. So what’s to prevent the Raiders from doing the opposite this time and adding Houston edge player Jadeveon Clowney to a pass rush that desperately needs help?
Clowney has been to the last three Pro Bowls and is still only 26 years old. Would general manager Mike Mayock and coach Jon Gruden like to have Clowney on their side? Absolutely.
But there are issues which make such a deal problematic. Five come to mind immediately:
1. Clowney would be a rental
Houston hit Clowney with a franchise tag and never came to agreement for a long-term deal. Since there was no deal before July 15, Clowney must play under the franchise number this season and can’t be signed to a new new contract until the 2019 season concludes.
Clowney is currently scheduled to make $15.97 million, the franchise number for a linebacker. He has filed a grievance to be paid as a defensive end, which is $17.13 million.
With just over $19 million in cap space, according to overthecap.com, the Raiders have room to make it happen — just barely.
But since Clowney can’t be extended, there is no guarantee of keeping him beyond this year unless he’s franchised again — and then the price tag for 2020 goes up again. And since Clowney can’t be traded until he signs his franchise tender, he holds veto power over any team and could demand a provision which puts him on the open market next season.
2. Raiders wouldn’t pay Mack, so why pay Clowney?
In NFL circles, Clowney considered one of the toughest edge players to block in the league.
Yet the Raiders already had the toughest guy to block in Mack, and they steadfastly refused to do what the Bears did in terms of a contract.
Taking the yearly inflation of contracts into account, even if the Raiders were serious about locking Clowney up longterm following the season, at what cost? Clowney will want something in the ballpark of the six-year deal with $90 million in guarantees that Mack received from the Bears.
Clowney has 29 sacks since being drafted No. 1 overall in 2014 and has never had 10 in a season. Mack has 53 after being taken No. 5 that same year and has had four seasons in a row with double digits.
3. Mayock is a big believer in building through the draft
The Raiders have two first-round picks next season, their own as well as the one they got from the Bears for Mack. So in theory, yes, they could ship one or both off to the Texans in exchange for Clowney.
But I see Mayock as a guy who is more likely to accumulate first-round picks, rather than trade them away. It was Gruden and Reggie McKenzie who added to this year’s haul with the trades of Mack and Amari Cooper, but Mayock had a big hand in who was picked.
And the Raiders only traded for Antonio Brown once they learned it wouldn’t cost them any of their first-round picks.
Right now, all three of those first-round picks — Clelin Ferrell, Josh Jacobs and Johnathan Abram, are scheduled to start.
4. The NFL is an offensive league, Raiders are paying heavily for offense
This gets back to why Mack was dealt in the first place. It’s easy to assume it was a Gruden temper tantrum and that the coach simply wanted Mack in camp or else.
Yes, Gruden is not a patient man, but that wasn’t all of it. The kind of money Mack wanted was so huge everyone in upper management all the way up to Mark Davis had their say.
The bottom line, right or wrong, is,the Raiders simply weren’t comfortable paying a defensive player that kind of money. It’s a league where offense (quarterbacks especially) are more heavily rewarded both by the rulebook and in terms of payroll.
The Raiders have more than $118 million in this year’s cap number committed to offense and $71 million to defense.
The following are the Raiders five highest cap numbers this season: Carr ($22.5 million), Trent Brown ($15.25 million), Antonio Brown ($14.96 million), Tyrell Williams ($10.1 million) and Rodney Hudson ($10.017 million).
All are offensive players.
Safety/slot corner Lamarcus Joyner is next at $9.05 million.
5. Gruden trusts defensive coordinator Paul Guenther
Even without Clowney, the Raiders almost assuredly will have a better pass rush. It’s simply not possible to be that bad two years in a row.
Don’t expect the Raiders to be in the upper tier in terms of sacks, but they’ll more than double their anemic 13 from a year ago. The low 30s won’t put them among the leaders, but it looks as if the Raiders may be adept at applying pressure up the middle with capable defensive tackles with some blitzing linebackers on occasion.
If they’re better against the run and have better down and distance, sacks will be more frequent.
The Raiders may not have anyone with 10 sacks (Clowney’s career high is 9.5), but if they can get some assorted sixes, sevens and eights and force quarterbacks into errant throws, an upgraded secondary could wind up with turnovers — which is better than a sack any day.