Marvel Studios
- “Avengers: Endgame” is forecast to break all kinds of box-office records, and stock analysts think it could help to push Disney shares higher.
- The latest Marvel movie is expected to take in $280 million domestically on its opening weekend and perhaps generate $2 billion in worldwide box-office revenue.
- “Avengers: Endgame” marks the end of phase three of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, but Disney has a strong lineup this year and could maintain fan interest by introducing the X-Men and the Fantastic Four to the MCU.
- The Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich argued that Disney’s stock was “more than just an endgame” and pointed to other drivers such as the coming Disney Plus streaming service and $2 billion in cost savings from its takeover of 21st Century Fox.
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“Avengers: Endgame” is shaping up to be one of the highest-grossing movies in history. Stock analysts think the superhero epic could help to push Disney shares higher.
Captain America, Iron Man, and Thor’s latest outing has already scored the biggest box-office opening ever in China and sold five times as many presale tickets as its prequel, “Avengers: Infinity War.” The movie is expected to rack up $280 million in domestic ticket sales in its opening weekend and go on to generate $800 million at the US box office and north of $2 billion worldwide.
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Heady demand for tickets sent AMC Entertainment‘s stock up 11% earlier this month, according to CNBC, and the cinema chain plans to keep 17 theaters open for 72 hours straight this weekend. The buying frenzy crashed the websites of the three major UK cinema chains — Cineworld, Odeon, and Vue — earlier this week, according to iNews.
“Avengers: Endgame” excitement has spread to toy stores too. Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner reported “very strong” sales of movie-related merchandise such as Mega Mighties action figures on the toymaker’s first-quarter earnings call. He expects the Disney-owned Marvel and The Avengers to have “a very big year.”
A $200 million marketing campaign, according to Deadline, has seen Earth’s mightiest heroes appear in Geico and Audi commercials and their weapons featured in “Fortnite.” The movie is also earning rave reviews: It has a critic score of 97% on the reviews aggregator Rotten Tomatoes and an IMDb rating of 9.2 out of 10.
“Avengers: Endgame” is the “next catalyst” for Disney stock, according to David Miller, an analyst at Imperial Capital. He forecasts a $275 million opening weekend and a worldwide gross of $2.15 billion.
The movie is the first release of a “very robust film slate” for Disney that includes “Aladdin,” “Toy Story 4,” “The Lion King,” “Frozen 2,” and “Star Wars: Episode IX,” said the Goldman Sachs analyst Drew Borst in a research note. It’s also the final film of phase three of the Marvel Cinematic Universe — the shared world that Marvel’s big-screen heroes live in.
“Some investors worry that after ‘Avengers: Endgame’ … Disney may struggle to maintain Marvel’s popularity and box office success,” Borst said.
“While franchise fatigue is always a risk…we believe Marvel is more insulated from this risk due to the MCU strategy.”
Movies in the MCU have grown in popularity since the first “Iron Man” film in 2008, as overseas interest in the franchise has risen. Disney might maintain that momentum by expanding the MCU: It secured the rights to the X-Men and the Fantastic Four with its recent purchase of 21st Century Fox entertainment assets. Borst predicted that including those characters would open up “new creative opportunities, interconnected film storylines, and ultimately more box office.”
He cautioned, however, that Disney’s studio business faced a tough comparative period this year. “Black Panther,” “Avengers: Infinity War,” and two “Star Wars” movies were all released in the 12 months that ended in September. Disney could continue capitalizing on those movies’ success, however, by featuring their characters in TV shows, musicals, video games, T-shirts, and theme parks.
In a research note titled “More than just an endgame,” the Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich pointed to “Avengers: Endgame” and the rest of Disney’s “solid studio slate” as a driver of its stock.
She also expects strong subscriber demand for Hulu, ESPN Plus, and the coming Disney Plus streaming service; growth in Disney’s theme parks and consumer products division; a stable showing from its media networks; potentially $2 billion in cost savings from the Fox deal; and share repurchases to push its shares higher.
Others aren’t as bullish about the MCU’s latest installment.
“We don’t see record pre-sales for “Avengers: Endgame” as a catalyst, as we think this type of early performance is expected of the final chapter of the current Avengers arc,” Daniel Salmon, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said in a research note.
Paying the salaries of the large Hollywood cast of “Avengers: Infinity War” ate into the movie’s bottom line, Salmon said. He expects that to be true for its successor too.
Disney’s stock has risen by a quarter in 2019. The company is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on May 8.