Congress Eyes More Spending as Virus Cases Surge and Economy Struggles – The New York Times

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Republicans and Democrats are considering new aid for workers and businesses, but lobbyists and lawmakers say the Trump administration is not deeply engaged.

Republican and Democratic lawmakers are coming to the conclusion that Congress needs to do more to bolster the economy as virus cases soar.Credit…Anna Moneymaker for The New York Times

WASHINGTON — There is a growing recognition across party lines that Congress will need to spend more money, and soon, to continue to prop up the American economy during the coronavirus recession.

But there is little consensus on what that next aid package will look like and how quickly it will arrive before the end of summer, and there is a sense among Republicans and Democrats that the next bill will spend far less to help people and businesses than the nearly $3 trillion that Congress approved in March in a series of rapid-fire bills.

Some economists say lawmakers are risking further damage to an already fragile recovery by not moving more quickly. The unemployment rate has dropped from its April peak but was still at 11.1 percent in June. Forecasters at the Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday that they expected the economy to shrink by 5.9 percent this year, a contraction that would be more than twice as large as the one the United States experienced during the Great Recession in 2009.

Federal Reserve officials are worried that a possible “second wave” of the pandemic would further depress economic growth in a way that would be “more severe and protracted” than the current forecast, according to minutes from their most recent meeting published on Wednesday.

Virus cases have begun to surge across much of the country. Real-time indicators of shopping patterns and business openings suggest that a once-brisk economic rebound stalled in June as the virus began spreading more rapidly in Texas, Florida and other states. Even the most encouraging signs of recovery — such as the report on Thursday that the economy added 4.8 million jobs in June — underscore how far the recovery still has to get back to what was normal before the virus: Nearly 18 million Americans remain unemployed.

Lobbyists and lawmakers say the Trump administration, which has lost several economic advisers in recent weeks, is not deeply engaged in devising another rescue package. Officials have hinted for weeks that they would formally propose tax cuts, infrastructure spending and other initiatives, but they have not followed through. President Trump has asserted that the economy is rebounding but has expressed support for additional tax cuts and government spending.

“Today’s announcement proves our economy is coming roaring back,” he said on Thursday after the jobs report. “It’s coming back extremely strong.”

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, appearing with Mr. Trump, said: “Our work is not done. Our work won’t be done until every single American that lost their job due to Covid is back to work.”

Senators are expected to leave Washington on Thursday after making only incremental progress toward an agreement to extend further relief to businesses and laid-off workers who are about to lose or have already exhausted federal assistance. Congress this week unanimously agreed to extend an aid program for small businesses through August, a move that small-business groups called a good but insufficient step to help prevent bankruptcies. But the Senate’s Republican majority rejected a Democratic attempt to extend supplemental benefits for the unemployed until the economy has more fully recovered.

“I don’t understand how a senator can go home and not have delivered supercharged unemployment along the lines we’re talking about,” said Senator Ron Wyden, Democrat of Oregon, who introduced legislation on Wednesday that would allow expanded unemployment benefits to continue as long as the economy was weak.

But as is their tendency just before funding and programs are set to expire, several lawmakers expressed optimism that Senate Republicans could rapidly reconcile their divisions and deficit fears with the $3 trillion measure that House Democrats approved in May.

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, told reporters on Tuesday that the focus of any legislation taken up in the Senate would be “kids, jobs and health care,” as well as liability protections for hospitals, doctors, nurses, businesses, colleges and universities.

Senator Roy Blunt, Republican of Missouri, said he had asked lawmakers and staff on the committee responsible for overseeing health, education and labor spending to begin compiling a package, while Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the minority leader, said he had been meeting with Mr. McConnell to prepare a legislative measure by the end of the month.

“It’s just a matter of figuring out kind of what those levers and dials are on the various programs where we need to do more,” Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, told reporters. “We, Senate Republicans, are doing this assessment, determining where we think the greatest needs are going to be, watching what’s happening in the economy as it opens up.”

A bipartisan group of lawmakers is also homing in on a deal to revamp the government’s efforts to help small businesses, likely including at least a partial shift from offering what were essentially grants to companies that kept workers on their payrolls to offering low- or no-interest, long-term loans.

    • What are the symptoms of coronavirus?

      Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.

    • Is it harder to exercise while wearing a mask?

      A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.

    • I’ve heard about a treatment called dexamethasone. Does it work?

      The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.

    • What is pandemic paid leave?

      The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.

    • Does asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19 happen?

      So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.

    • What’s the risk of catching coronavirus from a surface?

      Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.

    • How does blood type influence coronavirus?

      A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.

    • How many people have lost their jobs due to coronavirus in the U.S.?

      The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.

    • How can I protect myself while flying?

      If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)

    • What should I do if I feel sick?

      If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.

A coalition of industry associations, led by the Economic Innovation Group, an entrepreneurship-focused think tank, called on lawmakers this week to give small businesses sufficient aid “to survive a prolonged period of lower consumer demand, ongoing operational disruption, and continued uncertainty until the availability of a vaccine and effective therapeutic treatment eliminate Covid-19 as a severe public health concern” — including simple, zero-interest loans.

“As the shutdowns have grown longer, it has become clear that millions of small employers need additional help if they are to keep their heads above water and survive,” said Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine and one of the architects of the emerging plan to help businesses. “I believe that we are very close to reaching bipartisan agreement, and I know that for small businesses that are struggling, such an agreement cannot come soon enough.”

Other issues are much further from resolution, including whether to extend, possibly with modifications, the $600-a-week supplemental unemployment benefit that was passed in March and expires at the end of July. Top Republicans are also pushing to grant some form of immunity from lawsuits to companies, schools and businesses that reopen or have remained open while the virus continues to spread. And lawmakers will need to decide how much, if any, money to send to struggling state and local governments that have already begun laying off employees as tax revenue plummets.

Industries that have been particularly hard hit, like entertainment venues, continue to push for more generous and targeted aid to keep them afloat, like tax credits for a portion of refunded tickets.

“I think we need more now, more than ever to keep the momentum — I want to pour on the gas, right?” said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who added that he still objected to maintaining the $600 unemployment benefit. “I want a package that will keep the economy moving forward, more people being employed.”

Some conservatives continue to push congressional leaders and Mr. Trump to resist any additional government spending. Many economists disagree, saying further aid is needed to support the economy through what could be a long and slow recovery.

Federal spending has been “very important” to preventing an even steeper economic nose-dive, said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at the investment bank Jefferies. But it is at risk of running out long before the economy is ready to stand on its own.

“The stimulus was very short-lived,” she said. ‘This problem is going to persist long beyond July.”

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