Text size
It’s never fun being the third wheel.
Reports that Charles Schwab (ticker: SCHW) will buy rival electronic broker TD Ameritrade (AMTD) for $26 billion have sent shares in both companies soaring. The stocks were up 7.3% and 20% midday Thursday, respectively.
That leaves smaller rival E*Trade Financial (ETFC), long considered the most likely takeover target in the brokerage industry, without an obvious partner. Its stock is down 9.4% on the day and it’s the S&P 500’s worst performer.
It shouldn’t be too surprising that Schwab went hunting for a deal. E-brokers have been under pressure as worries over economic growth crimp stock-trading volumes and as interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve eat into the interest brokers collect on client cash. Then came the elimination of trading commissions last month. Schwab’s move followed that of Interactive Brokers’ (IBKR), which caters to a more sophisticated trading crowd, and it prompted TD Ameritrade and E*Trade to swiftly follow suit.
“When SCHW pulled the rug out from under the industry last month, it figured that we’d be seeing at least one deal and maybe two,” says Don Bilson, analyst at Gordon Haskett. But most investors, Bilson says, thought it would be E*Trade on the other side of a deal with either Schwab—the biggest publicly traded e-broker by market capitalization by far—or TD Ameritrade.
Yet Wall Street is surprised. The industry, taking together Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, and Interactive Brokers, is worth $8 billion more today than it was yesterday—essentially what these companies make in a year. All that’s changed is news two of them may join forces.
So where does this potential deal leave E*Trade? Under more pressure than ever to find its own partner, says Bilson.
With the obvious candidates now spoken for, Bilson reiterated a point he made after brokers cut commissions to zero: E*Trade may well end up with a partner that isn’t an online broker, such as Goldman Sachs (GS).
Neither E*Trade nor Goldman Sachs immediately responded to requests for comment.
Goldman and other Wall Street banks have been chasing Schwab in recent years, as it morphed from discount broker to what some big brokerage executives have called their biggest threat. To fight Schwab, Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) have been giving away free trades, Morgan Stanley (MS) has been putting money into technology, and Goldman has been targeting middle-class clients with its Marcus arm.
Bank stocks are more or less shrugging off the news. Bank of America, which owns the Merrill Lynch brokerage, was up 0.4% Thursday. At Morgan Stanley, where brokerage makes up about half the business, shares were down 0.5%. Goldman’s shares slipped 0.3%, while JPMorgan’s stock rose 0.3%.
Last but not least, there is Fidelity. The private company has a huge brokerage business and, possibly, an appetite of its own to swallow a rival. Fidelity declined to comment on the possibility of a deal.
Write to Lisa Beilfuss at lisa.beilfuss@dowjones.com