Photo from UNIAN

Photo from UNIAN

Ukrainian experts say the rate of the national currency, the hryvnia, against the U.S. dollar may reach UAH 30 per dollar in 2021.

Director of Da Vinci AG Analytic Group Anatoly Baronin predicts the hryvnia’s forex rate will be sliding, the Ukrainian TSN TV news service reported on October 7.

According to the expert, several factors will affect the hryvnia, namely the change of the National Bank’s management, the government’s actions, and the influence of oligarchs. However, the local elections will have no effect on the national currency rate, he believes.

“The IMF [International Monetary Fund] was interested in keeping the exchange rate, as it means the stability of the gold and forex reserves and a guarantee that Ukraine will be able to pay both foreign and domestic debts. Now we see that both the government and the new management of the National Bank are not interested in this since there is tough spending of gold and forex reserves. In such a way, we’ll have UAH 30 per dollar by spring,” he added.

Managing Partner at the Capital Times investment company Erik Nayman also believes that the dollar will be strengthening in 2021, to over UAH 30 per dollar. A large budget deficit is one of the factors behind the developments, he says.

  • Analysts predict a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia against the U.S. dollar during the autumn of 2020. The exchange rate is expected within the range of UAH 27 to UAH 30 per dollar.
  • The IMF, Ukraine’s key lender, forecasts the rate of the national currency at UAH 30 per dollar in 2020.
  • Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko sees no prerequisites for the exchange rate at UAH 30 per dollar and says there are no tools that could be used to influence this.
  • On July 29, the Cabinet of Ministers approved a new forecast of the country’s economic and social development. Officials hope that the hryvnia rate against the U.S. dollar may reach UAH 28.8 per dollar, while its average annual forex rate may be UAH 29.1 per dollar.