Stock edged up Thursday morning after new data underscored another surge in U.S. weekly unemployment claims and a slump in new-home construction, as the coronavirus pandemic continued to hit the domestic economy.
New jobless claims topped five million for the week ended April 11, bringing the four-week total to more than 22 million. Still, equity traders looked past the data, which at least showed a decline in new claims over the prior week’s 6.6 million.
“The stock market seems to count job layoffs the same way they read the curve of new positive coronavirus cases and think that 5.245 million jobless claims this week is better and lower than the 6.615 million applications last week,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG, said in an email.
“The labor market curve is flattening and that’s a good thing for the economic outlook as it signifies a recession this time around not a new Great Depression from the 1930s that lasted three and a half years,” he added. “We hope stock market investors are right that the peak in layoffs each week means the worst is over, but somehow it seems irrelevant how fast the layoffs are coming as long as they are coming. And more job layoffs are coming.”
Meanwhile, recent quarterly results from some of the country’s biggest financial institutions including Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BA) and Citigroup (C) reflected steep drops in first-quarter earnings over last year, providing some the first comprehensive glimpses at the coronavirus’s impact on corporate profitability.
Large banks are mostly setting aside billions to cover what they expect to be heavy loan losses, as the outbreak ravages Main Street and key economic sectors.
March retail sales were shown on Wednesday to have plunged at a record rate as consumers – the key engine of U.S. economic activity – stayed in their homes, and put off the bulk of discretionary purchases. Combined with other data, including one showing manufacturing output dropped by the most since 1946 in March, the data stunned Wall Street with the U.S. economy now appears to be “in free fall.”
The Federal Reserve’s April Beige Book, or collection of anecdotes about conditions across the regional Fed districts, affirmed the economic deterioration, noting that “economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the United States as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
While pivotal to containing the spread of the coronavirus, social distancing measures have been catastrophic for domestic economic activity, leaving the question of when businesses across the country will reopen hanging in balance. Though federal and state officials from New York to California are weighing reopening plans as new coronavirus cases level off, definite timelines for easing distancing standards have yet to be established.
President Donald Trump said he will announce guidelines on Thursday to ease stay-at-home measures in some parts of the country, after speaking with more than 200 leaders in a series of calls earlier this week.
“As the U.S. looks to begin the slow process of opening up the economy in May, a couple of conditions need to be met,” Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, wrote in a note Wednesday.
“First, it needs to be clear that the health systems across the country have the capacity to deal with a rise in new coronavirus infections. Second, we need to be on the right side of the infection and death curves,” he added.
“Third, testing capacity needs to be good,” he added. “It looks like the U.S. is on its way to achieving the first and second of these conditions but remains well short of the third. At the moment, the U.S. is conducting just over 1 million tests per week; the health experts say we need at least twice this amount before reopening safely.”
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9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks open slightly higher
Stocks opened slightly higher even after economic data showed another surge in unemployment claims last week.
Here were the main moves in markets, as of 9:32 a.m. ET:
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S&P 500 (^GSPC): +17.55 points (+0.63%) to 2,800.91
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Dow (^DJI): +44.44 points (+0.19%) to 23,548.79
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Nasdaq (^IXIC): +97.99 points (+1.17%) to 8,490.77
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Crude (CL=F): +$0.22 (+1.11%) to $20.09 a barrel
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Gold (GC=F): +$8.10 (+0.47%) to $1,748.30 per ounce
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10-year Treasury (^TNX): -3.3 bps to yield 0.608%
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8:35 a.m. ET: Philadelphia Fed Index plummets to -56.6 in April, the lowest in 40 years
The Philadelphia Fed index for business conditions plummeted in April to -56.6, down from -12.7 in March. This was much worse than the -32 expected by economists, and represented the lowest level since July 1980.
From the Philly Fed: “This is the current activity index’s lowest reading since July 1980. The percentage of firms reporting decreases (60 percent) this month far exceeded the percentage reporting increases (4 percent). The index for new orders fell further into negative territory, from -15.5 to -70.9, its lowest reading ever. Also reaching an all-time low, the current shipments index fell 74 points after remaining slightly positive in March. Unfilled orders fell 6 points further into negative territory, while delivery times rose 13 points to 4.1, suggesting longer delivery times.“
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8:31 a.m. ET: New home construction drops by the most since 1984 in March
U.S. housing starts slid in March over February by the widest margin since 1984, highlighting the coronavirus’s early devastation on the domestic housing market.
Housing starts dropped 22.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.216 million, from a revised 1.564 million in February. Consensus economists had expected housing starts to drop 18.7%, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.
Building permits, which serve as a proxy for future home-building, also dropped in March, albeit less than expected. Permits dropped 6.8% to a seasonally adjusted 1.353 million in March, extending February’s 6.3% decline from the prior month.
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8:30 a.m. ET: New jobless claims totaled 5.245 million last week, bringing four-week total to more than 22 million
New unemployment claims totaled 5.245 million for the week ended April 11, the Labor Department reported Thursday. This followed a rise of 6.615 million claims for the prior week, which were upwardly revised from the previously reported 6.606 million.
The headline new unemployment claims figure was trivially below consensus estimates for 5.5 million, according to Bloomberg compiled data. Over the past four weeks, new unemployment claims topped 22 million as the coronavirus pandemic sparked businesses across the country to temporarily shut down and furlough or lay off workers.
Continuing jobless claims rose to 11.976 million, topping the prior week’s 7.446 million for a new record high.
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7:20 a.m. ET: Morgan Stanley 1Q earnings fall over last year, sales and trading revenue tops expectations
Morgan Stanley (MS) delivered first-quarter earnings per share of $1.01, down from the $1.39 reported in the same quarter last year. The bank said its expenses rose due in part to higher allowances for credit losses for unfunded lending commitments.
Morgan Stanley joined peers including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America in reporting strong sales and trading figures, as the bank benefited from increased client activity amid the March market volatility. Morgan Stanley’s bond-trading revenue was $2.2 billion, versus the $1.77 billion Bloomberg-compiled consensus expectation. Equity sales and trading revenue of $2.42 billion topped estimates for $2.3 billion.
Overall, however, company-wide net revenue of $9.5 billion was below expectations for $9.6 billion, and was down from $10.3 billion last year.
“Over the past two months, we have witnessed more market volatility, uncertainty and anxiety as a result of the devastating COVID-19 than at any time since the financial crisis,” CEO James Gorman said in a statement. “While it’s too early to predict how this will unfold, Morgan Stanley navigated the quarter well given the conditions, and our results bear testament to the strength of our balanced business model.”
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7:14 a.m. ET Thursday: Stock futures edge up ahead of jobless claims report
Stock futures were slightly higher Thursday morning leading up to the Labor Department’s latest report on weekly jobless claims.
Here were the main moves in markets, as of 7:14 ET:
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S&P 500 futures (ES=F): up 13.25 points, or +0.48% to 2,788.25
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Dow futures (YM=F): up 86 points, or +0.37% to 23,477.00
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Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): up 68.75 points, or +0.79% to 8,662.25
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Crude (CL=F): +$0.22 (+1.11%) to $20.09 a barrel
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Gold (GC=F): +$21.40 (+1.23%) to $1,761.60 per ounce
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10-year Treasury (^TNX): -1.3 bps to yield 0.628%
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6:01 p.m. ET Wednesday: Stock futures open lower
Here were the main moves at the start of the overnight session for U.S. equity futures, as of 6:01 p.m. ET Wednesday
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S&P 500 futures (ES=F): down 3.5 points, or -0.13% to 2,771.5
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Dow futures (YM=F): down 37 points, or -0.16% to 23,354.00
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Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): down 9.5 points, or -0.11% to 8,584.50
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