The Fed is in worse shape than the economy as post-crisis expansion reaches a decade – CNBC

In just over a month, the U.S. economy will complete 10 years of economic expansion, matching the longest expansion in history. The last time this happened, in March 2001, the economy slid from its lofty peak and into recession. The unemployment rate in the months preceding that recession dipped to 3.9 percent, nearly identical to the current rate.

How likely is history to repeat and what does it mean for the Federal Reserve?

Over the past 30 years, the Federal Reserve has been looked upon as a stabilizing force amid turbulent economic times. Sound monetary led to the “great moderation” of low inflation and sustained economic growth. In the depths of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke was largely credited for pulling back the U.S. economy from the brink of collapse. However, troubling developments in the political climate in Washington raise doubts as to whether the Federal Reserve will be able to continue to do its job effectively and meet its objectives.

When President Trump came into office, he inherited a growing economy that had seen the unemployment rate fall substantially over the previous eight years. His own appointed Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, committed to continue the normalization of monetary policy that began under his predecessor, Janet Yellen. This was a prudent policy consistent with maintaining low inflation in an economy that was at full employment.

However, when the stock market began to waver last year under fears of tariffs and a trade war, Trump made the unprecedented move of criticizing the Fed policy of raising the fed funds rate, even though the gradual move to normalize rates was anticipated and clearly communicated. He went as far as saying that the central bank had “gone crazy” and even looked into whether he had the authority to fire Powell.

The political motive was clear: to use the Federal Reserve as a scapegoat in the event that a recession does occur, even if it’s the result of his own economic policies. This erosion of confidence in the Federal Reserve poses grave risks to our economy.

Recent developments in the ongoing drama between Trump and the Federal Reserve have been anything but encouraging. Although Powell vowed to remain apolitical, the FOMC reversed course at its March meeting, implying that they were done with rate hikes for the foreseeable future and ending their balance sheet reduction later this year.

This week, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard proclaimed that the Fed’s normalization process was at an end. Trump, emboldened by seemingly being able to dictate monetary policy, is now calling for the Fed to expand its balance sheet with another round of quantitative easing. Larry Kudlow, his National Economic Council Director, said he would like to see a rate cut of 50 basis points.

Both steps are unheard of outside of a drastic economic downturn. Kudlow was quoted as saying interest rates may never go up again in his lifetime. Such overt statements regarding monetary policy from the White House are reckless and irresponsible.